José Ángel Cruz Morales warns about the models of the sector: “The data is not neutral, it has owners and interests”

José Ángel Cruz Morales is not afraid of numbers, but he is afraid of what is done with them. Applied mathematician, data journalist and odds modeler in the world of online gamingthis Mexican born in 1985 moves with the same ease between Bayesian equations as he does between ethical debates on regulation and responsible gaming. Jose Angel Cruz Morales issues a clear warning: sector models are not as objective as they seem. In this interview we talk to him about data, interests, sports betting and regulation.

Let’s start with the headline phrase. Why do you say that the data is not neutral?

“Because it is not, that simple. The data is always born in a context. Someone decides what is measured, how it is measured, and what it is measured for.and that already introduces a bias. In the online gaming and sports betting sector, models are designed to maximize profitability, not to tell universal truths. The problem is when they are sold as “objective” or “scientific” without explaining the interests behind.”

You come from pure mathematics. At what point does criticism come in?

“Just for coming from there. I studied Applied Mathematics at UNAMwith high probability, statistics and stochastic processes. Then I made a master’s degree in Data Science at ITAMvery oriented to business and financial risk. There I understood that The model is never reality, it is a representation. When you work in sports betting or online casinothat representation has real consequences.”

You work as a quota modeler. Isn’t it contradictory to criticize the system from within?

“No, on the contrary. If you don’t know it from the inside, you only make superficial criticism. I model quotas in BetInsight LabsI analyze markets, I calibrate probabilities… and that is precisely why I know where the tricks, the hidden assumptions and the gray areas are. Criticizing is not rejecting the technique, it is demanding responsibility in its use..”

What types of interests usually hide behind the models?

“Mainly economic, but also regulatory and political. For example, an operator can adjust a model to reduce risk exposure in certain player profiles, but sell it as “consumer protection.” Or conversely, use very lax responsible gaming metrics to justify aggressive practices. The data becomes an alibinot an honest analysis tool.”

Does this happen only in Mexico or is it a global problem?

“It is global, but in Mexico it is more present due to the lack of clear regulation. I did a Postgraduate in Digital Regulation and Compliance at Carlos III in Madridand there the debate is more advanced. Here we are still at the stage of “let the market regulate itself,” which is naive.”

Let’s talk about data journalism. What role does it play in all this?

“A fundamental role, but also dangerous if done poorly. data journalism should serve for disarm speechesnot to reinforce them. In the gaming sector I see many “journalistic” reports that are actually marketing with graphics. The journalist has to ask: where does the data come from? What is not being measured? Who benefits from this reading?

Have you encountered resistance when publishing critical analyses?

“All the time. From awkward silences to calls of ‘hey, you better tone it down.’ But it’s normal. When you question predictive models that move millions, you make people uncomfortable.. The worrying thing is when criticism is dismissed by saying “it’s just too technical, people wouldn’t understand it.” That is the worst argument.”

Do you think the public can understand these issues?

“Of course they do, if they are explained well. You don’t have to show the complete Bayesian formula to explain that a quota does not reflect only probability, but commercial strategy. The problem is the lack of will to be transparent.”

What mistakes do you see most often in sports betting models?

“Many. Overfitting, unrealistic assumptions, poorly contextualized historical data… but the most serious is ignore human behavior. The models assume rational players and that does not exist. People bet with emotions, biases, imaginary streaks. “If you don’t integrate that, the model is elegant but incomplete.”

And what about responsible gaming? Do models help or hinder?

“It depends on how they are used. They can help a lot to detect early risk patterns, but they can also be used to Optimize player spending without appearing like abuse. There is the ethical line. If your model detects vulnerability and you use it to push promotions, you are crossing a very serious line.”

Do you consider yourself more of a mathematician, journalist or researcher?

“A rare hybrid. I feel comfortable saying that I am data journalist specialized in iGamingbut with hard training in statistics and econometrics. “This allows me to speak with technicians, regulators and the general public without changing my mental language.”

What would you say to someone who blindly trusts numbers?

“Let him be a little more suspicious. The numbers don’t lie, but they don’t speak alone either.. There is always someone whispering to them what to say. Asking who that someone is is the first step to not hearing the entire speech.”

To close: what future do you see for the sector in Mexico?

“An inevitably more regulated and more observed future. online game It will continue to grow, that is a fact. The question is whether he will do it with opaque and extractive models or with responsible analytics and clear frameworks. That is where journalists, researchers and regulators have to put pressure.”

And your role in that future?

“Continue making people uncomfortable with data. Explain, translate, question. If the models have power, someone has to watch them. And if the data has owners and interests, the minimum is to point them out.”