The United States blockade leaves Cuba on the brink of a humanitarian crisis due to the abandonment of its allies Russia and China

Trump’s arguments appeal to US security: Cuba would be hosting Chinese and Russian spies, in addition to harboring Hamas terrorists.

Of coursedid not bother to provide any proof of his accusations nor in explaining how they could pose a threat to American national security at this point.

That the Castro regime – experts see Díaz Canel as a mere transmitter of the old man’s orders Raul Castro and his son Alejandro – despises individual freedoms and has among his greatest allies anyone who does the same is something that has been known for almost seventy years.

The sudden decision to economically strangle the island clearly has a political objective and is marked by the Secretary of State, Marco Rubioson of Cuban emigrants in the fifties.

Although Trump insists that the regime must negotiate “before it is too late” and Díaz Canel himself stated last week that I would be willing to open those negotiation channelsthe truth is that the first step towards an agreement has not yet been taken.

Al cut off oil supplies from Venezuela and force Mexico to do the same -Claudia Sheinbaum, of course, sent a shipment of “humanitarian aid” this weekend-, the current concern of the international community is to prevent the crisis from causing a cataclysm among Cuban civil society.

Fight for Russia for nothing

On Sunday, an anonymous source from a European airline confessed to the AFP agency that the Cuban authorities had informed them that There was no longer oil to refuel on their trips.

The measure, in principle, came into force this Tuesday, although there is no direct confirmation from the Cuban Government.

Los regional trips, in principle, can be maintainedbut, at least for a month, the International flights will have to have a prior stopover to refuel.

It is the beginning of a series of restrictive measures that it is not known to what extent they will affect the population.

Cuba has no oil and has no allies. For decades, the regime barely survived with the support of the Soviet Union and China, But, beyond the condemnations and indignation in front of the gallery, it does not seem that neither Moscow nor Beijing are willing to lift a finger to challenge the US blockade and help an ally of many battles.

He Russian case is particularly strange. If the Díaz Canel regime falls, and with it, the entire Castro structure, It would be the fourth friendly country to collapse without the Kremlin intervening.

It happened in Syria in 2024, when Al Assad had to take refuge in Moscow; happened with Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro in January of this year and can happen at any time in Iranwhich saw how the US and Israel bombed its nuclear facilities without Putin flinching despite having sent hundreds of thousands of Shahed drones to the front of Ukraine.

In that sense, Cuba may share the same complaint. Although, officially, the Government has not sent troops or weapons to support Russia, all of the Kremlin’s demands have been diplomatically shared from Havana and thousands of “volunteers” have crossed the pond to fight in Putin’s war. It seems clear that Moscow is not here to return favors to anyone.

Another “Delcy Rodríguez route”?

According to Victoria Grabenwoeger, from the market analysis company KplerCuba would now be at the limit of its oil reserves, with which the constraints would begin to be immediately noticeable in household electricity consumption.

As much as Gustavo Petro y Lula da Silva have recently shown their solidarity with the Castro regime, the truth is that neither of them dares to bother the White House too much.

Colombia is in the midst of a collaboration campaign against drug trafficking and Lula does not want any scares ahead of the October elections, where he is the clear favorite.

The regime, then, is surrounded, but so is the Cuban people, who, in addition to suffering the oppression and hungeryour quality of life may be reduced to catastrophic levels.

Rubio and Trump believe that Díaz Canel will give in, But the Castro regime has demonstrated an overwhelming capacity for resistance, largely because the embargoes and blockades barely affect its elites.

It is also not clear what they should do. Expel Chinese diplomats under the excuse of espionage? That is not going to happen and the White House knows it.

The The only solution is to negotiate a “Delcy Rodríguez route” and trust that there will be a political transition that satisfies Marco Rubio and the opposition in Miami.

The armed means, which worked so well with Nicolás Maduro, would pose a very high risk herebecause the memory of the Bay of Pigs, even though 65 years have passed, is still present in the US and MAGA hardliners do not want adventures of that type.

The next few days, therefore, will be key. Washington awaits a gesture that it fails to detail and Díaz Canel proposes negotiations on aspects that are not specified. The disagreement is absolute and the idea is that hunger and basic needs do the work of erosion.

A cruel bet no matter how noble the possible gain. We can only hope that Rubio and Trump this time have not messed up with the calculation… and that the Castro family, once and for all, accepts that the island is not their property.